(Image: lombardiletter.com)
What happens?
According to CNBC, NATO will increase its high-readiness troops 7.5 fold, from the current level of 40,000 to a massive number, 300,000.
Why?
There are 3 possible reasons:
(1) NATO is ready to fight Russia if Russia forces advance pass Ukraine
(2) NATO wants to directly fight with Russia because Ukraine is losing badly. Probably they think that it’s the time to “finish” Russia and break it up, or “decolonize Russia” as the US gov recently said. NATO may think that they have more resources (more than 20x Russia GDP) hence they can beat Russia.
(3) The US wants to start a war with China in the Pacific and wants NATO to hold Russian forces in Europe so Russia won’t be able to come and help China. After all, Russia needs to protect its Western borders. The developed economies are on the verge of collapsing and they may think that a war with China will reverse it.
What are the implications?
I don’t think scenario (1) is the reason because NATO (and everyone) knows that Russia won’t advance to NATO countries. Why do the Russians want to do that? Their economy and power are not big enough to conquer Europe, although I think their army is sufficiently strong to defend their homeland. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is only rebuilding its economy and military powers in the last 20 years. They are not yet at the point of dominating other major powers. Another 20 years might be if they are able to catch up with the West and China economic might.
Both scenarios (2) and (3) will lead to WW3, whereby Russia and China will join forces fighting against the Western Allies: USA, NATO in Europe and Japan, Korea, Australia in Asia. As soon as Russia and NATO start shooting each other, China will attack Taiwan because they will think that the US can’t handle 2 war fronts at the same time. Other countries like North Korea, Iran, Syriawill join the Russia - China side. There will be 3 major battlefields: Europe, Middle East and East Asia.
I think the most plausible scenario is (3) because the US wants to remain the sole world superpower while Russia and China are challenging that. They are “isolating” the West by trading more with the rest of the world and accelerating the de-dollarization process by building alternative payment systems. Since both Russia and China will only get stronger economically and militarily, if the USA wants to suppress and kill off the challengers, it’s better to fight early while the US military power is still strong.
All the world major powers possess nuclear weapons. The losing side in the war will likely want to use nuclear weapons to destroy the enemies. Of course there will be nuclear exchanges if anyone starts using it. Destructions will be unimaginable.
The world is entering a dangerous time.
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