These are my observations of Putin after watching a fascinating interview by the Oscar-winning director, Oliver Stone. You can find the interviews here: Interview Part 1, 2, 3, 4
What are Putin’s goals? What does he want to achieve?
His goals for Russia are:
(1) Russia becomes richer and the economic growth is sustainable for a long time.
Using Western GDP per capita, USD40k-60k as benchmarks, Russia has a long way to go and that’s exciting for Russians because they have something to aim for. The current Russia GDP per capita is about USD10k. Putin admires the Western economic successes that have been built in the last 200 years.
(2) Russia is a powerful country on the global stage with a strong military that can match great nations like the USA and China.
He opposes a unipolar world where one country, the USA, is too powerful and dominates other nations. He wants other nations to be strong enough to balance the power of the USA. Russia must be one of them.
(3) Russia has its own sovereignty. Russia future and policies are decided only by Russians and not influenced by outside powers.
(4) Personally, he wants to leave a legacy as a great Russian President that takes good care of the Russian people.
What are his values?
(1) Flexibility
He has practised Judo for over 50 years without interruption. He said his philosophies are heavily influenced by Judo. Judo philosophy is flexibility, not coercion or bullying. A judo fighter defeats an opponent by using the opponent’s power. The judo fighter doesn’t try to defeat the opponent by overwhelming force. He is economical and very efficient in using his energy and resources. There’s no or little waste. This can be seen in how Russia is able to build a powerful army that is comparable with the US and China with only 1/10th and 1/4th of budget.
(2) Well-being of the Russian people
He is sad that 25 million Russians were separated from “Mother Russia” after the collapse of the Soviet Union in early 1990s. He said that these people suddenly found themselves in foreign countries like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Baltic nations, etc.
He wants to preserve the traditional Russian values and to protect the children. Unlike the West, Russia has passed laws to protect children from gender education before 18 years old. Putin said when a person is 18 years old, the person can freely choose their gender orientation.
(3) Respect for the USA
He always refers to the USA as “partners”. He doesn’t sound arrogant and doesn’t use scolding tones when talking about the shortcomings of the USA.
(4) Healthy body
He is taking great care of his health. He’s exercising everyday in the gyms, at swimming pools and on judo training courts. Like Lee Kwan Yew, I think with that attitude toward health, Putin should be strong enough to govern Russia for a long time. He’s only 70 years old as of 2022.
(5) Sovereignty
It’s very important for him that Russia has sovereignty and her domestic and foreign affairs are not influenced by foreigners. The US governments have been trying to meddle with Russian domestic affairs by funding oppositions and NGOs. However, their attempts fail because Putin is able to fight back and protect what he has built.
(6) Religious
Religions were suppressed during 70 years under communism rule. Now, religions flourish with the blessing of Putin.
(7) Legacy
When asked to address accusations that he’s corrupt and is one of the richest men in the world, Putin said that happiness is not achieved by money. To him, a person’s worth is what kind of legacy he's leaving behind, i.e. whether he makes people better off. It means, Putin wants to be remembered as a great president and not as a corrupt politician.
(8) Forward-thinking
He criticizes US Presidents and politicians for living in the past and not realizing the world has changed. He thinks that the US politicians are not thinking forward in 25, 50 years. For him, the US politicians still view Russia as an enemy like during the Soviet Union era and fail to realize that Russia is a new nation. Perception is projection. What it means is that when a person says something about the outside world, actually the person is showing what he thinks internally. Since Putin judges the US on a long term view, it means he’s thinking about Russia in the same manner. His concerns and focus must be how to make Russia great in the next 25 to 50 year period.
What is his character?
(1) He’s loyal.
Although Putin provides asylum for Edward Snowden, he disapproves of Snowden's choice because it’s a betrayal of his employer. It shows Putin values loyalty. If he were Snowden, he would have resigned instead of whistleblowing.
(2) He’s a responsible person.
When Yeltsin wanted to promote Putin to be acting prime minister and later, to run for President position, he initially refused. Reason is that he thinks the head of state is a massive position with great responsibilities. A President is responsible for the lives of millions of people. Any mistake would be very costly because it impacts millions of people. It shows that he values responsibility higher than personal power and prestige.
(3) He’s highly disciplined.
He said that if one is not disciplined, he wouldn’t be able to accomplish his goals. Understandably, high achievers like him must be very disciplined because it takes great effort and dedication to be successful.
(4) He’s humble.
His tone doesn’t show that he’s above others. He’s fully aware that Russia is much poorer than the US at the moment and is focused on growing the economy.
What are his achievements?
Standards of living and financial strengths increased considerably under his leadership (from 2000 to 2022). Citizens are much richer.
GDP Per capita:
Absolute: After 22 years of his leadership, GDP per capita has increased 6 fold.
Relative to other countries: 93rd in 2000, 66th in 2019
Russia has reduced the gap with the USA from 20x down to 6x (USA 2020 $63500 6.2x of Russia, Russia $10126; USA 2000 $36300 20x Russia, Russia $1771)
GDP rank: 20th in 2000, 11th in 2020
Russia has reduced the gap with the USA from 39x down to 13.9x (USA 2020 $20.9tril 13.9x of Russia, Russia $1.5tril; USA 2000 $10.2tril 39x Russia, Russia $0.26tril)
Russia external debts to GDP fell from 90% in 2000 to 26% in 2021. The country has improved its finances from an unstable position with high debts in 2000 to a very strong and stable finances in 2021.
Life expectancy increased from 64.5 in 2000 to 73 in 2019 (13% increase in 19 years)
What are his views of the USA?
He has a respect for the USA for the success it has achieved. However, he thinks that the US economic situation is getting worse because of high levels of debts. He doesn’t like the US foreign policies because they are interfering with internal affairs of other countries. Which means that the US doesn’t respect other country sovereignty.
Morally, he thinks that the USA is losing traditional values.
In international relations, the unipolar model led by a sole superpower, the US, is not suitable anymore because it doesn’t bring security for other countries and it doesn’t reflect the new reality of rising powers. When there’s only one superpower, there is no balance of power and the superpower can do anything they want. As a result, the world is unjust and unstable with conflicts everywhere.
The world powers are in a new arm race because the USA has withdrawn from international arm control treaties since 2000. This creates an unstable world. Why did the USA do that? Because they want to be the dominant military power and hence, they can control the world.
EXPLAINING THE REASONS OF ECONOMIC SUCCESS
What are his economic policies?
Low taxes: 13% personal income tax, 20% corporate tax
Responsible and disciplined fiscal policy: maintain budget surplus, control government spendings
Consistent trade surplus
Based on the above, will Russia be richer or poorer from here?
Commodity prices are expected to increase in the next 10 years so Russia income will increase.
Putin is expected to remain in power so political and government finances should be stable and conservative.
Therefore, I think Russia will be richer and more powerful in the next 10 years.
What are his weaknesses?
Unable to know from the interviews. Will update later when I have more information.
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