Here's what I learn from the joint statement after a historic meeting between President Putin and President Xi Jinping on the 4th Feb 2022 in Beijing, 3 weeks before the Ukraine Russia war started.
There’s “no limit” in Russia and China cooperation. Currently, it’s mainly economics. It may include military cooperation in the future if they see the need.
They are creating a new world order. The old world order after WW2 led by the US and the West is not relevant now.
The Eurasia region from Russia to China and India and the Middle East will see a huge economic development and will be an exciting place. It will be a new engine of growth in the world economy in the coming decades.
They are opposing the way the US is interfering with domestic affairs of many countries around the world. We can see that by the way the US changes regimes in countries they don’t like. It’s obvious that nobody wants to be interfered with their own affairs, be it an individual, a family or a country. But why are Russia and China more vocal now? Because China has grown to such a big size that it’s already equal to the US and the West, both technologically and economically. Russia is still a military power and also has a vast land with rich natural resources. So Russia is also a big power. At the same time, the US and the West economic power is declining. They are facing terrible economic prospects: skyrocketing debts and low or no growth. Economic power is always the base of political power. When one is rich, one will be powerful. When one is poor, one is weak and has no say.
What are the implications?
The US and the West won’t surrender control of the world without a fight. If they do, it’s good for the world. However, it’s very unlikely because it’s very tough to be humble when you are at the top and realize that time has changed. Therefore, the risk that the US and the West initiate hot wars with Russia and China in the coming decade is very high. That will be World War 3 and it’ll be terrible for all of us.
Countries around the world will need to realize the US - China (+ Russia) competition and assess who will come out on top. From there, they will choose who to be friends with and to do business with. Choosing wrong friends will have a bad consequence that could last for decades. It could make a whole generation poor.
The current Russia - Ukraine war is a part of wider conflicts to establish a new world order, the one that Russia and China don’t want the US to dictate. Russia is well prepared and has friends around the world outside the US and the West. So Russia economy and Putin's position won’t be affected by the West sanctions.
At the end of the day, money talks. China will be a rich country and will develop its military power further. Therefore, it’s natural that they will set the rules and everybody needs to be aware and accept that (just like the US set the rules after WW2). Countries that can’t accept the reality will face serious consequences because they will pick wrong opponents to fight and will lose.
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