(Image: lombardiletter.com)
In 1992, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US became the world sole superpower, like an undisputed king of a jungle. That time, the New York Times published an article, detailing the US military and political strategies in the new era. This article helps explain a lot of what has happened in the last 30 years, including the current Ukraine conflict and US-China tension.
Here are some highlights of the article.
WHAT IS THE US GOAL?
“no rival superpower is allowed to emerge in Western Europe, Asia or the territory of the former Soviet Union.”
In other words, the US is the king of the world forever.
WHAT STRATEGIES TO ACHIEVE THIS GOAL?
You can be rich but can’t be powerful (armed), e.g. Japan, Germany, now China (rich and powerful), Russia (powerful):
“The classified document makes the case for a world dominated by one superpower whose position can be perpetuated by constructive behavior and sufficient military might to deter any nation or group of nations from challenging American primacy.
…
To perpetuate this role, the United States "must sufficiently account for the interests of the advanced industrial nations to discourage them from challenging our leadership or seeking to overturn the established political and economic order,"
…
“the document foresees building a world security arrangement that pre-empts Germany and Japan from pursuing a course of substantial rearmament, especially nuclear armament, in the future.”
“The new draft sketches a world in which there is one dominant military power whose leaders "must maintain the mechanisms for deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role."
U.N. Action Ignored. The US will act on its own militarily, no need UN approval.
“The document is conspicuously devoid of references to collective action through the United Nations”
..
“What is most important, it says, is "the sense that the world order is ultimately backed by the U.S." and "the United States should be postured to act independently when collective action cannot be orchestrated" or in a crisis that demands quick response.”
No Europe security arrangement but NATO. Hence, Ukraine war now.
“ In Europe, the Pentagon paper asserts that "a substantial American presence in Europe and continued cohesion within the Western alliance remain vital," but to avoid a competitive relationship from developing, "we must seek to prevent the emergence of European-only security arrangements which would undermine NATO."”
This explains why the US rejected Russia proposal on a new European security framework in Dec 2021. Russia has no choice but to use forces to get what they want because diplomatic means have been exhausted.
“Russia will remain "the only power in the world with the capability of destroying the United States”.
Because Russia is always a threat, the US must remove this threat by destroying Russia or at least changing Putin’s regime by color revolution. That’s why we see the US hostility policies toward Russia throughout the 2010s and the current Ukraine war.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN NOW AND FOR THE FUTURE?
The US is the ruler of the world now. If we look at the world as a country, the US is like the king. Governments/rulers have police and army forces to keep order (“rules-based order” as the West calls it) and to suppress anybody who dares to rebel. Right now, the US has about 800 military bases around the world for this purpose.
In any society or organization, big or small, there are always people who oppose the central authority's ideas or actions. Whether this opposition can change the status quo depends on its size and power. Right now, opposing forces/rebels of the “king” USA are getting bigger and stronger. They are led by Russia and China and include the likes of Iran and North Korea. Usually, rebels from different places with different ideologies/values/ideals band together, put aside differences and fight the common enemy, the authority. Once they achieve their objectives and get the power, they will settle the differences later. Why so? Because by default, rebel forces are much smaller and weaker than the ruler’s ones at first. Therefore, in order to improve the chance of success and become stronger, they MUST unite. Of course, the ruler’s strategy is the exact opposite, which is divide and conquer. That’s why, we are seeing organizations like: Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS and EAEU etc. These are the alliances of the rebels. How strong are these rebellion forces? Massive. About more than 50% of the world population and at least 25-30% of the world GDP. They are constantly expanding with many countries wanting to join.
Right now, we are in the middle of a tectonic collision course between these 2 forces: the ruler (US-led West) and the rebels (led by China and Russia). The world has never seen a conflict of this magnitude since WW1 and WW2. The outcome of this fight is affecting every single person in the world.
There are 2 ways this conflict will be resolved:
Best way: the ruler voluntarily shares the power with the rebels via non violence ways, i.e. diplomacy. The rebels are of course happy to do that because nobody in their right mind wants to be involved in a physical fight if they can get what they want other ways. The challenge for this path is the ruler. The ruler must have great wisdom and understanding to know that time has changed because nobody is on top forever. It's in their best interests to share the power peacefully. This could happen if there’s a civil war in the US or a non-interventionist population like Libertarians/Ron Paul’s followers get control of the US power. This will make the US weaker internationally and the rebels will fill the power vacuum.
Disaster way: a bloody fight, World War 3. The ruler refuses to let go of the control and forcefully fights and suppresses the rebels.
Which way will it go? With what is happening in the US, Europe, Taiwan right now, the probability is 80% for path 2, WW3. Why? Because we humans, in most of the cases, lack great wisdom and understanding. Therefore, we prefer to use force to resolve conflicts, be it at individual or country levels. That’s why there have been frequent wars in every corner of the Earth since the beginning of humans. Why is it different this time?
The winner will be the rebels (Russia, China group) because in terms of economic and military powers, they are getting stronger with more worldwide support while the ruler is becoming weaker and weaker.
WHAT ARE TRADE IDEAS FOR THIS?
In the long run, like 10 year horizon:
Long China, Russia, Asia, commodities (physical, producers, lands), monetary metals (gold, silver), weapon producers. Commodities because in this decade of wars, inflation will be high.
Short US, Europe, Japan and their currencies
(Disclaimer: not an investment advice. Please check with your financial advisors.)
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