What does each party want in this war?
Russia:
Stated goals: Protect the people of Donbas from the Kiev regime.
Actual goals: (1) push NATO out of Ukraine (2) protect the ethnic Russians in Ukraine by bringing their lands to Russia. That is the Eastern Ukraine area, covering from Kharkiv in the North to Odessa in the South.
US:
disintegrates Russia and takes natural resources
no direct fight with Russia
Kiev regime: Puppets of the US.
UK: just follows the US
Germany, France: good relations with Russia
Eastern Europe, Russia neighbors: see Russia destroyed
What are each party strategies to achieve their goals?
Russia:
Eliminate Ukraine Army and NATO presence in Ukraine
Eliminate neo Nazi ideology in Ukraine
Use superior fire power rather than man power to win
Bring ethnic Russians and their lands to Russia
Wear down NATO will via economic pains
NATO:
Destroy Russia economy by isolating Russia, economic warfare and exhausting Russian Army capabilities
Provide finance, equipment and advisors to Ukraine. Use Ukraine people to weaken Russia
What are the capabilities of each side?
Weapons: comparable. Russia has some more advanced weapons than NATO.
Weapon production capacity: comparable
Willpower:
Russia has a clear advantage over the US because they are defending their motherland while the US is faraway. Russians are supporting the war at ALL COSTS because their lives and lands are at risk. Western citizens won’t support the war when the going gets tough because their lives are not at risk.
Also, Russia is historically good at defending their country against Western powers.
Why is Russia raising the stake now? Have they changed their goals? If so, what are their new ones?
Russia plan A is to bring the US to negotiation by starting the war and demonstrating their firepower. However, the US doesn’t back down because they are making huge profits and they are not losing anybody.
For Russians, negotiation with the US is over. They are now securing what they have achieved in the four regions by formally bringing them to Russia.
After that, Russia will try to capture Odessa and Kharkiv.
If the US doesn’t stop supporting Kiev, Russia will capture Kiev and install a Russian friendly government.
Their goals haven’t changed.
For Russia, the best case scenario is to achieve their goals with minimum costs. That will happen when the US withdraws support for Kiev.
Where are we now?
Russia has achieved half of their land goal by controlling four regions.
Russia is winning the economic war. The West economy is on the verge of collapse with skyrocketing prices.
How will the war end? How long will it take?
The war will end when the US withdraws support for Ukraine. That will happen when the European economies and governments collapse due to public discontent with dramatically falling living standards. That will break the NATO unity and the US will be forced to accept the European decisions to stop supporting Ukraine. This will probably happen by summer of 2023. NATO will then withdraw their presence in Ukraine.
What are trade ideas for this conflict?
All else being equal: short Euro, short Europe equities and long commodities
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