ROMANCE OF THE 3 KINGDOMS: USA - RUSSIA - CHINA

(Image: lucaphim)

In the story of the Romance of the 3 kingdoms (a classic Chinese novel, widely popular in East Asia in the last 700 years), 2 of the 3 warring countries often allied with each other to fight the other one. USA, Russia, China after WW2 until today are quite similar. After WW2, Russia and China were close. In the 1970s, China and Russia were enemies and China got closer with the USA. After 2014, China and Russia are friendly again to fight “the common enemy” - the USA. If history is a guide, this warm China Russia relationship will last for at least 2 decades.

The left out country faced very bad consequences in the previous 2 periods. In the 1970s, the US was bankrupt as a result of the Vietnam war, in which Russia and China supplied money and weapons to the North who defeated the US-supported South Vietnam. The US lost so much money in the Vietnam War (together with other factors) that they had to remove the gold backing of the USD because they don’t have enough gold (i.e. money) anymore. A significant event of the 20th century.

Two decades after China and America got together in the 1970s, the Soviet Union collapsed.

In the next decade, the prospect for the USA economy and society is not very bright when Russia and China are closer again. What can change? The USA says sorry to Russia and tries to pull them back in its arms. How likely is it? I think very unlikely given the current “Russophobia” mood in Washington. Moreover, Putin and Xi just declared in Feb 2022 that Russia-China friendship is "unlimited".