CHINA - RUSSIA COOPERATION: WILL IT LAST?

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China and Russia are clearly teaming up in the fight against the USA. Many people doubt if this cooperation will last because there’s little common between them. I think they are wrong.

Here is how I think it will play out:

• Phase 1: In the next decade or more, Russia and China will put aside their differences and team up to fight against the USA and the Western domination. During this time, they will not fight against each other on issues like border disputes, Siberia land and natural resources. The cooperation will last as long as it takes until they defeat the USA.

• Phase 2: If they manage to defeat the USA, they will settle their differences after that. Depending on their relative power at that time, like military and economic strengths, their conflicts will be resolved. For example, if China at that time is still 10x bigger than Russia both in terms of economy and military, it’s possible that China will fight with Russia in order to take back the lost lands in Siberia a few centuries ago or even to get most of the Siberia because it’s super rich in natural resources and China is hungry of resources.

Why do China and Russia need each other?

• The US-led West is too strong for China and Russia individually and especially if one of them joins the West to fight against the other.

• Russia needs a giant economic partner and China offers that

• China needs a lot of natural resources and Russia has an abundance.

• Militarily, both are nuclear armed and powerful so teaming up together makes the coalition even much stronger and it enhances the odds of defeating the West tremendously.

Why did the US allow Russia and China to come together?

It’s because the Russophobia faction in the US is able to get their way. As a result, they have been pursuing the policies of fighting and breaking up Russia. At the same time, the US was taking their eyes off the ball on China miraculous rise. When they realize that China is too big, it’s already too late. Since Russia is so hated by the US, naturally they will come to China.

There are plenty of examples in history where adversaries allied together to fight against a third entity and came back to their own disputes later after successfully defeating the common enemy. Chinese Communists and Nationalists cooperated with each other to fight the Japanese in the 1930s. After the Japanese were defeated in 1945, the two resumed the unfinished civil war until 1949. Another example is the USA and USSR. After their alliance defeated Germany, both countries “fought” each other in the next 40 year Cold War.

What are the implications?

With the decline of economic power of the West and the rise of China and Russia, I think the Russia China alliance will defeat the USA because they are very strong. Therefore, many countries will choose to side with Russia and China. Economically, it is BRICS cooperation and new financial systems as well as participation in the colossal Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. Militarily, many will choose to side with them in the coming WW3 when it breaks out.

Countries siding with the West will be in the losing end. It includes Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Once WW3 is over, Japan will be punished by China because of the past humiliation in the first half of the 20th century. After the US defeat, there will be no more US bases and troops in South Korea. North and South Korea will be reunited and the new Korea country will be friendly with China.

Smaller countries need to make smart choices in the great power conflicts. Wrong choices can lead to disastrous consequences for generations. Right choices can enhance the probabilities of safety and prosperity.

What this means for us “peasants" is for us and our children to learn languages of the powerful ones. Beside English, the next important languages in the order of decreasing importance are Chinese, then Korean and Russian. Choose the one that suits your interests.