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Lao Tzu's wisdom 2500 years ago about how a country should behave (actually same for individuals) - Chapter 61 in Dao De Ching. Both big and small countries need to be humble and respect their neighboring countries if they want to live peacefully and last very long.
Don't follow his advice (i.e. arrogant, bossy), it will be the downfall of the country.
The USA is currently the most powerful country on Earth. However, it's nothing but humble. It goes around the world and bosses other countries around. If they don't listen, they will be punished with bombs and bullets or cut off the finances to death. Look at Germany and France now, and practically the whole of Europe. They can't decide for themselves. They need approval from the master USA. Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, wants to have cheap gas for the economy. Of course, who wants expensive gas? So they build a short and direct pipeline to the source (hence cheaper) without passing through so many countries (so need to pay more toll fees). That's so simple and so right thing to do. But no, they are opposed by somebody thousands of km away. What is the sovereignty of a country? Before the Ukraine conflict broke out this year, the German Chancellor had to go to Washington for discussion of Nord Stream 2, as part of the Ukraine conflict resolution. It's amazing that the Germans have to ask Washington for permission.
All empires in history rose and fell. No exception. The US is currently in a dire economic situation because it is the largest debtor country in world history ($30 trillion dollars). The USD is slowly losing the world reserve currency, along with all the benefits it enjoyed in the past. Lao Tzu is right. The USA is behaving exactly the opposite way as his teachings and all evidence is pointing to the direction that the USA empire is in a decline. By the way, you can check out billionaire investor Ray Dalio’s linkedin for his predictions of the decline of the USA and the rise of China.
Also, according to Lao Tzu's teaching, a small country next to a big country should pay respect to the big country, i.e. being humble and know the power (incidentally, Dalio says "respect power"). This is not what Ukraine is doing. They are disrespecting the Russian power. That's the reason why the big neighbor is destroying Ukraine now. This point is also made by prominent Prof John Mearsheimer (just youtube him) in his view on Ukraine - Russia conflicts.
Another example of a small country living beside a big country is Vietnam (and also others like Korea I think). China is the most powerful country in East Asia in the last 2000 years. China is in the center and smaller countries are on the sides, including Vietnam, Korea, Japan etc. It's like a big planet surrounded by small satellites. Vietnam defeated the Chinese invasion many times in history. Once, after successfully fighting the invasion, Vietnam even attacked China deep inside the borders. However, Vietnam withdrew back and didn’t occupy the land after that. After each successful defeat of China invasion, Vietnam kings always paid annual tributes to Chinese emperors by sending the nicest things that could be found in the country. Why did they have to do that when they were the victors? Because Vietnam is still a small country after all, it shows respect and humility to the powerful neighbor. By doing that, Vietnam can live peacefully, be an independent country and is not a part of China until today.
Implications:
If the USA wants to maintain the superpower status for a very long time and doesn’t go into decline, they need to be humble:
- Stop having bully attitudes like “I am big, I can do what I want, I decide what’s right or wrong”.
- Disband NATO
- Bring home all troops. Shrink the army.
- Stop using USD as an economic weapon by sanctioning other countries and people
- Close global institutions like the UN, IMF, World Bank because they are not needed and they are not objective.
- Stop USD as the world reserve currency and replace it with a neutral money in gold
- Clean up the domestic finance mess and strengthen the economy. This is for their own good and not essential in foreign relations.
- Pay down government debts by creating a government budget surplus. It means cutting down the government expenses and shrinking the government.
- Stop central and fractional banking and go back to free market principles
For Ukraine (and also Taiwan): they need to be smart in their choices as a small nation/province (Taiwan case) next to a giant, taking into account the concerns of Russia (Prof John Mearsheimer also makes this point). Don’t be arrogant, openly and directly challenge the big neighbors. Give Russia (China) respect and Russia (China) will do the same.
Do I think the USA will change its behaviors? No. I think it’s highly unlikely because it’s too painful to do so. Therefore, the USA in serious decline is inevitable.
Do I think the Ukrainians will be smart in their choices and able to compromise and give respect to Russia? That’s up to them. But the way the USA is controlling Ukraine, it’s not probable with the current regime.
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